The ascension of a strong Russian oil industry this decade is the most influential new force in the world oil market since the empowerment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the seventies.

Russia holds more oil resources than any country outside OPEC and vies with Saudi Arabia for world leadership in production and exports. The productive capabilities of Russia’s oil industry and the policies of its government clearly move both short and long run world oil prices. Russia is at once an ally and opponent of OPEC and stands in the same dichotomous relationship to oil consumers. It is a fulcrum.

After 15 years of radical transformation, the Russian oil industry now enjoys unprecedented economic and technical stability. This has brought record production increases and financial well-being. The country’s ability to continue growth in output, however, faces increases in operating and transportation costs and taxes, which will limit producers’ profits and investments. Moreover, much of the country’s untapped resource base is located in remote, high-cost and environmentally sensitive locales. Recently, strong new forces, which have centralized national political and economic power in the hands of the Russian president, also raise doubts over Russia’s ability to maintain its recent rate of growth in oil output.

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