Three Journeys through Conflict: Narratives and Lessons

by Alker, H.R., Gurr, R.T., Rupesinghe, K.

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers



Table of Contents

Preface: The Origins of the CEWS Vision

I. Building Conflict Early Warning Systems

1. The Challenge of Developing Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Proposal Hayward R. Alker, Ted Robert Gurr and Kumar Rupesinghe 2. The Double Design of the CEWS Project Hayward R. Alker and Thomas Schmalberger 3. Peacemaking and Conflict Transformation in Guatemala Luis Alberto Padilla

II. Comparative Studies of Prevention Successes and Failures 4. Could Humanitarian Crises Have Been Anticipated in Burundi, Rwanda, and Zaire? A Comparative Study of Anticipatory Indicators Barbara Harff 5. Escalatory Dynamics in the Moldova-Dniestr and Chechnya Conflicts Olga A. Vorkunova 6. Why Are Some Ethnic Disputes Settled Peacefully, While Others Become Violent?: Kin-Group Conflicts in Post-Communist Europe Michael Lund, with Wendy Betts 7. A Comparative Analysis of Confict Resolution in Angola and South Africa Vasu Gounden and Hussein Solomon 8. Non-Conventional Diplomacy: Experiences of NGOs & People's Participation in Selected Peace Processes Sanam Anderlini, Ed Garcia, and Kumar Rupesinghe 9. Domestic and Transnational Strategies for Managing Separatist Conflicts: Four Asian Cases Ted Robert Gurr and Deepa Khosla

III: A Prototype Information System for Early Warning Networks

10. A Comparative Look at Early Warning Indicators: PIOOM, the State Failures Project and CEWS Cases Alex P. Schmid 11. A Synthetic Framework for Extensible Conflict Early Warning Information Systems Thomas Schmalberger and Hayward R. Alker 12. Exploring Alternative Conflict Trajectories with the CEWS-Explorer. Thomas Schmalberger Click here for supplementary tables to Chapters 11 and 12 IV: Sharing Informational Resources within Global CEW Networks 13. Lessons from CEWS, FEWER & Other Early Warning Projects Kumar Rupesinghe and David Nyheim with Maha Khan References Index About the Contributors