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Dangerous Liaisons:
A Simulation of the Cuban Missile Crisis
by
Thomas Schmalberger, Ph.D.
What would have happened if President Kennedy had ordered an air strike against Soviet missile sites in Cuba? What if he had not done anything at all? Would it have been possible to do nothing? These are some of the questions historians have traditionally been concerend with. Exploring what possibilities existed at a certain point in time is what historians need to determine in order to make assessments about particular occurences or decisions. In fact, any historical assessment, or any judgment for that matter, involves at least implicitly a contrast to other possibilities. To call Khrushchev's decision reckless implies that he could have decided more responsibly, and to call Kennedy's handling of the crisis courageous implies that he could have acted guttlessly. Yet, what would these possibilities have looked like concretely, and what other possibilities would they have produced in turn? Historical analyses usually do not consider the further implications of a what-if question, i.e. historical analyses are rarely explicitly concerned with counterfactual scenarios. The hesitation to venture into counterfactual scenarios is justified as long as no rigorous methodology provides the logical grounds for making counterfactual arguments beyond the first node. Yet with an adequate methodology the development of counterfactual scenarios opens new spaces for theorizing, training and teaching.
Counterfactual scenarios can be generated in different ways, and computer simulations are only one of them. Computer simulations are used for the design of new products ranging from microwaves to spacecrafts. They are not only more cost effective than experiments with expensive equipment but also enable the testing of a product under conditions that cannot be produced for experiments. These simulations aim at testing the functions of a product under different conditions, to locate errors, malfunctions, and breakdowns. Thus, computer simulations improve the design and function of a product by discovering features previously unknown. Computer simulations are also used to exercise and train people for handling equipment in difficult situations. For instance, pilots are trained to deal with dangerous situations that occur rarely, but if they do, require immediate and decisive action. Moreover, computer simulations are employed to forecast weather patterns and stock market fluctuations. Yet, while they are fairly reliable in their forecast of global pattern changes and general trends, their record of reliable forecasts of specific or local occurences is mostly poor.
The problem of making computer simulations, or all simulations for that matter, context-sensitive is particularly acute if social interactions are to be simulated. For instance, the simulation of negotiations often takes the form of role play. While this exercise can be helpful for the refinement of roles such as the mediator, the bluffer, the diplomat, the conditions that distinguish a real negotiation from a played negotiation cannot be reproduced. This becomes even more pronounced if a situation such as a crisis is to be simulated, for it involves anxiety, fear, and stress which are genuinly experienced as the situation unfolds. The simulation of a historical case is a better way of approximating how conditions change in real-time. Anxiety, fear, and stress are not re-experienced but can be appropriately represented.
Dangerous Liaisions: A Simulation of the Cuban Missile Crisis is a step towards better representing social interactions for the simulation of international crises. It is based on a methodology that makes the semantics of a situation explicit, i.e. actions are not abstracted from their context but they rather create context. Although based on the actual Cuban Missile Crisis the computer program allows one to generate numerous crises of which the actual crisis is but one. It is this feature which lends the simulation for further theorizing, training and teaching.
By generating various scenarios:
- new features can be discovered about the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Cold War and international crises more generally. In turn, these discoveries lend themselves for further theorizing about these phenomena. Like a product that can be tested for errors, malfunctions, and breakdowns, the computer simulation allows one to test hypotheses.
- professionals can exercise their leadership abilities, their political and cultural sensitivity, and diplomatic skills. Like a pilot who trains for emergency landings, a professional can train for preventing, managing, or resolving crisis situations.
- students can enter the world of policy makers and learn how difficult it is to deal with the complexity of a crisis situation.