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Project Number: 03-27 P.I. Name & Address: Mihailo D. Trifunac Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering KAP
216D Tel:(213)
740-0570 Fax:(213)
744-1426 Email:trifunac@usc.edu Co-P.I.:
Maria I.
Todorovska
Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering KAP
216A Tel:(213)
740-0616 Fax:(213)
744-1426 Email:mtodorov@usc.edu
This methodology is relevant for (a) deign and retrofit of bridges and
tunnel structures that cross earthquake faults, (b) seismic risk assessment
for the ground transportation system, i.e. the risk for physical damage, loss
of function, and overall economic consequences on the regional economy, and
(3) emergency planning. There are many examples of such structures, already
built or under construction, and there will be more of these in the future.
Actual damage of bridges crossing a fault has been observed in Turkey from
the 1999 Duzce earthquake (M = 7.2) and in Taiwan from the 1999 earthquake (M
= 7.6).
The proposed methodology will be developed within the framework of
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which considers all conceivable
earthquakes that may affect the structure of interest, as well as their
likelihood of occurrence during the life or service time of the
structure. Hence, it will be consistent with the description of
ground motion related to the dynamic loads in structures caused by earthquake
shaking. It will also make it possible to compare the risks from
seismic events with those from other natural or man made hazards. Task Descriptions: 1. Gathering and review of
published data on fault slip from past earthquakes. (2 months) 2.
Development of a statistical regression model for prediction of the average
fault slip over the fault surface as function of earthquake magnitude for
different types of faulting (strike-slip, thrust, reverse, and combined
faulting) (1 month). 3.
Development of a model for prediction of the static displacement on the
ground surface from an earthquake faulting (at depth) based on theoretical models
of earthquake faulting (2 months). 4.
Software development - a new module for the NEQRISK software package to
compute the conditional probability that given permanent displacement on the
ground surface will not be exceeded given an earthquake has occurred (1
months). 5.
Software development - a new module for NEQRISK to compute the probability
that a) the displacement on the ground surface from a single earthquake will
not exceed a given level during a specified exposure period; and b) the
cumulative displacement on the ground surface from all earthquakes during the
exposure period will not exceed a specified level; and the corresponding
hazard rates and return periods. (2 months). 6.
Methodology demonstration on a hypothetical but realistic fault in
metropolitan Los Angeles, and sensitivity analysis (2 months). 7.
Preparation of a final report, a journal paper, and a conference paper (2
months).
Milestones, Dates: Total Budget: $80,000 Student Involvement: One Student @ 50% time for 4.5 academic months One
Student @ 25% time for 4.5 academic months
One Student @ 50%
time for 3 summer months Relationship to Other Research Projects: Investigators and coworkers on seismic
hazard assessment. Technology
Transfer Activities:
presented
at a conference; project report posted on USC web Potential Benefits of the
Project:
bridges
and tunnels that cross earthquake faults; (b) more comprehensive
seismic risk
assessment methodology for the ground transportation system; and (c) an
additional tool for emergency planning. TRB
Keywords: Seismic hazard assessment; design
and retrofit of highway bridges and
tunnels. Primary Subject: Infrastructure Goals:
Reduction
of direct and indirect losses from seismic damage to the
transportation infrastructure. Enabling Research: Probabilistic seismic hazard methodology framework; data
on fault
slip during past earthquakes; theoretical models for static displacements
from earthquakes. Modal Orientation: Highway |
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