RISK ANALYSIS (Bakir, Bier, John, Orosz, O'Sullivan, Samuelson, von Winterfeldt, Willis)
Our risk analysis team has expertise in probabilistic risk analysis of engineered systems, game theoretic extensions of risk analysis, and expert elicitation of risks and uncertainties. The team also has substantive expertise in the risks of nuclear facilities, nuclear waste storage and transport, flammable material, environmental pollutants, and earthquakes. This research group will support the three Threat Assessment projects with risk analysis and will extend risk analysis to include game theoretic concepts and other methods to address the problem of the unknown probability of a specific terrorism attack. In addition, we will explore the use of risk-based methods to improve the allocation of funds to fight terrorism.
RISK MANAGEMENT (Dessouky, Hall, Larson, Tambe)
A major focus of CREATE is to develop tools that can be used to minimize loss of life and property damage in the aftermath of catastrophic terrorist events. This will be accomplished by enhancing the abilities of response agencies to optimally allocate and deploy their resources, both in planning for events and in executing response plans in the hours and days following events. CREATE's focus in year one is on developing GIS based tools for personnel and equipment deployment and storage and allocation of inventoried items (e.g., medicines), as well as for training emergency response commanders.
ECONOMICS (Gordon, Moore, Richardson, Rose, Lave, Smith)
Our economic team has experience in the economic modeling of major disasters (Gordon, Moore, and Richardson at USC), cost-benefit analysis of major risk reduction decisions (Lave), and the impact of environmental changes on the behavior of economic agents (Smith).
We are modeling the costs of various terrorist attacks on structures and infrastructures and support the three applied case studies. To apply and expand our economic modeling capabilities, we will develop and launch several modeling projects.