Research Reports

• Risk Analysis
• Risk Management
• Economic Analysis
• Case Studies
• DHS Scholar Projects

RISK ANALYSIS

• "Transnational Terrorism"  Todd Sandler, Daniel G. Arce and Walter Enders
• "The Risk  Analysis Workbench (RAW)"  Mike Orosz, Bob Neches, Terry Benzel
• "Network Reliabilty Models"  Sheldon M. Ross
• "Strategic Decision Making in the Presence of Adversaries"  Erim Kardes
• "Estimating the Likelihood of Terrorism Events and Public Response"  Richard John and Heather Rosoff
• "Innovations in Risk and Economic Modeling of Counterterrorism "  Vicki Bier
• "Advanced Risk and Decision Analysis"  Detlof von Winterfeldt
• "Understanding Counterterrorism Actions in a Globalized World"  Todd Sandler
• Journal for Risk Analysis
  Special CREATE Edition
• "Distribution of Transnational Terrorism amoung Countries by Income Classes and Geography After 9/11"
  Walter Enders, Todd Sandler
• "Decision-making and the Vulnerability of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure."
  Rae Zimmerman
• "Practical Value Models"   Ralph Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt
• "Defining a Decision Anaytic Structure"  Detlof von Winterfeldt
• "Should we Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists"  Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terry O'Sullivan
• "Choosing a tritium suppy for nuclear weapons: A decision analysis caught in conrtoversy"  Detlof von Winterfeldt
• "Survey of Literature on Strategic Decision Making in the Presence of Adversaries"
  Erim Kardes, Randolph Hall
• "Assessment Guidelines for Counter Terrorism"
  Randolph Hall, Howard Bowman, Michael Orosz, Terry O'Sullivan
• "Electricity Case: Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Systems-Different Approaches for Risk Analysis of Electric Power Systems"
  Åke J. Holmgren
• The Economic Implications of Terrorist Attack on Commercial Aviation in the USA
  Tunde Balvanyos and Lester B. Lave
• Risk Management and Risk Analysis-Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power
  Jeffrey S. Simonoff, Carlos E. Restrepo, and Rae Zimmerman
• A Decision Analysis to Evaluate the Cost-Effectiveness of MANPADS Countermeasures
  Detlof von Winterfeldt and Terry O’Sullivan
• A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
  Heather Rosoff and Detlof von Winterfeldt
• An Analysis of the Risks of a Terrorist Attack on LNG Receiving Facilities in the United States
  Carl Southwell
• Choosing What to Protect
  Vicki Bier
• The Uncertain Dynamics of Global Bioterrorism: Smallpox as a Hypothetical Case for Risks and Responses
  Terry O'Sullivan
• External Terrorist Threats to Civilian Airliners: A Summary Risk Analysis of MANPADs, Other Ballistic Weapons Risks, Future Threats, and Possible Countermeasures Policies
  Terry O'Sullivan
• Risk Analyist Workbench Design and Architecture
  Michael Orosz
• SAAS: Simulation Analysis of Aviation Security
  Ke-Thai Yao & Sandeep Kadam
• Robust Stochastic Games and Applications to Counter-Terrorism Strategies
  Erim Kardes
• Probabilistic Representation of the Threat and Consequences of Weapon Attacks on Commercial Aircraft
  John Caffrey & Sami Masri
• Risk Perception: A Review
  William J. Burns
• An Analysis of Truck Cargo Security at Southwestern Borders and Potential Impacts of Cross-Border Trucking Services of Mexican Carriers on Terrorism Risk Exposure
  Niyazi Onur Bakir & Danielle Pakdaman
• Choosing What to Protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation against an Unknown Attacker
  Vicki Bier, Santiago Oliveros & Larry Samuelson
• The Use of Stochastic Games on a Homeland Security Problem
  Erim Kardes      
• Prevention and Reduction of Campus Terrorism via Risk and Economic Analysis and Diversity Enhancement    Lloyd Mitchell
• Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection reportThe Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. In the report titled Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection, the authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorism risk across cities and within specific cities and to assist intelligence analysis. Henry Willis of RAND is also a CREATE researcher.
   

RISK MANAGEMENT

• "1st Annual Intertribal Risk Analysis Symposium and Roundtable"  Lloyd Mitchell
• "Emergency Supply Planning"  Maged Dessouky and Fernando Ordonez
• "Emergency Response Modelling"  Richard Larson
• "Allocation of Resources for Risk Management"  Rae Zimmerman
• "Security Via Strategic Randomization"  Milind Tambe and Fernando Ordonez
• "Optimal Allocation of Resources to Counter Terrorism"   Don Klienmuntz and Henry H. Willis
• "Emergency Response for Homeland Security: Lessons Learned and the Need for Analysis."
  Richard C. Larson, Michael D. Metzger, Michael F. Cahn
• "Decision Models for Emergency Response Planning"
  Richard C. Larson
• "A Modeling Framework for Facility Location of Medical Services for Large-Scale Emergencies"
  Hongzhong Jia, Fernando Ordóñez, Maged Dessouky
• "The DEFACTO System: Training Tool for Incident Commanders"
  Nathan Schurr, Janusz Marecki, J.P. Lewis, Milind Tambe, Paul Scerri
• "Storage, Distribution, and Dispensing of Medical Supplies"
  David Belson

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

• "This Role of Public and Private Mitigation for Homeland Security Policy"  Kerry Smith
• "Estimating the Total Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacts: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling of Resilience and Extended Linkage" Adam Rose
• "Economic Impact Modeling and Analysis with Input-Output Models" Peter Gordon, James Moore and Harry Richardson
• "Optimal Resource Allocation for Security in Reliability Systems"
  Naceur Azaiez, Vicki M. Bier
• Adjusting to Natural Disasters
  Kerry Smith
• "Designing Benefit-Cost Analysis for Homeland Security Policies"
  Kerry Smith, Daniel G. Hallstrom
• "Subsidies in Interdependent Security with Heterogeneous Discount Rates"    Jun Zhuang, Vicki M. Bier, Asish Gupta
• "Subsidized Security and Stability of Equilibrium Solutions in an N-Player Game with Errors"
  Jun Zhuang, Vicki Bier
• "The Economic Impact of a Terrorist Attack on the Twin Ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach"
  Peter Gordon, James E Moore, II, Harry W. Richardson, Qisheng Pan
• Electricity Case: Statistical Analysis of Electric Power Outages
  Simonoff, J
• "Electricity Case: Economic Cost Estimation Factors for Economic Assessment of Terrorist Attacks"
  Rae Zimmerman (NYU-Wagner), Lester B. Lave (Carnegie Mellon), Carlos E. Restrepo, Nicole J. Dooskin, Ray V. Hartwell, Justin I. Miller, and Wendy E. Remington (NYU-Wagner); Jeffrey S. Simonoff (NYU-Stern), Richard E. Schuler (Cornell)
• The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Commercial Aviation System
  Peter Gordon, Soojung Kim, James E. Moore, II, Jiyoung Park and Harry W. Richardson
• The Economic Impacts of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports: Applying the Supply-Driven NIEMO (National Interstate Economic Model)    JiYoung Park
• Grant Funding to State and Local Governments and Systematic Assessment of Vulnerability
  Alexia Brunet

CASE STUDIES

• "Electricity Case: Main Report - Risk, Consequences, and Economic Accounting"
  Rae Zimmerman, Carlos E. Restrepo, Nicole J. Dooskin, Ray V. Hartwell, Justin I. Miller and Wendy E. Remington (NYU-Wagner); Jeffrey S. Simonoff (NYU-Stern); Lester B. Lave (Carnegie Mellon); Richard E. Schuler (Cornell)
• "Electricity Case: Statistical Analysis of Electric Power Outages"
  Jeffrey S. Simonoff (NYU-Stern); Rae Zimmerman, Carlos E. Restrepo, Nicole J. Dooskin, Ray V. Hartwell, Justin I. Miller and Wendy E. Remington (NYU-Wagner); Lester B. Lave (Carnegie Mellon); Richard E. Schuler (Cornell)
• Impact to New Jersey’s Economy of the Loss of Electric Power in New Jersey’s Urban Industrial Corridor
  Michael Greenberg

DHS SCHOLAR PROJECTS

• "Experimental Analysis of Privacy Loss in DCOP Algorithms"
  Rachael Greenstadt (Harvard); Jonathan Pearce, Emma Bowring, Milind Tambe (USC)
• "Variable Affecting the Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons by Terrorist Groups: A Survey of Recent Literature and Implications for Risk Analysis"
  Kevin Valsi (University of Maryland)
• "Funding Appropriation for U.S. Seaports: A Brief Analysis of the Methods, Factors, And Consequences of the Allocation of Resources for Port Security"
  Lindsey M. Blumenthal
• "Vulnerabilities of the National Border Security Strategy on the U.S. Border Patrol"
  Veronica Garza