The End of the Net, Part II: Crossing the Spasm

- James Larkin Jonassen
  LAwNMoweR, Origami Media Foundation, Larkin Associates, Larkin Group

OK, so I was wrong- you cangive it away and then start charging for it later. Who'da thunk?

Look at the ATM (automatic teller machine, that is). We used to trot the globe using whichever termainal we wanted at no charge. What a country! Then the banks waited until we made a cultural change and not only got used to the ATMs, but dependent on them. Now my monthly statement is littered with $1 and $1.50 charges - this is microcash- welcome to it!

So where is the growth of it on the Net?

Well, it is not a technological change that is required, but rather a cultural of social change. We aren't really too worried about the security aspects of conducting commerce on the Web, we just don't find it interesting, convienient or valuable enough to get us to stop doing it the old way. Oh yeah, mostly, we just haven't tried it yet.

How long until the Net succumbs to this change? Not long, because no medium shall be without a billing mechanism. The question really becomes which bill with it be on? My cable TV bill? Telephone bill? ISP bill? Or my digital wireless provider bill?

And what about this advertising model? Is it dead? Can anyone really make a profit based on ad revenues? Just you wait. Ad spending will soom be soaring. I know this because of the number of ad reps we are searching for. Remeber, at Larkin Associates, we are headhunters focused exlusively on new media buyers and planners for their Web sites. These companies are looking to exploit an incredibly accountable medium for educating sponsors as to the acutal desires for their customers.

There have been some brilliant examples of new media ad campaigns, such as the Lexus dealer in Florida that droves dozens of buyers through his doors over a weekend to purchase cars. I have always felt that this medium would become real when the ad agencies got the bug and believed that they could make money and deliver results for their clients. Notice how slow it has been in coming? Well, the move by a significant number of top-named agencies, joint ventures and hot new media shops with respectable billings is underway. Shecky, get your check book, the time to place your bet is here!

Which brings us back to the Net billing dilemma. Bill Gates thinks that it might be the cable company since he just dumped a boat load of dough into Comcast. Bill also showed up at the last National Assoication of Broadcasters convention in Las Vegas (the home of digital weddings), where he proclaimed that televison was dead and the real deal was the smart VGA monitor (also known as a high-resolution televison with a chip). And what about the phone guys? AT & T is trying to get under the SEC/FCC/Antitrust radar by snatching up SBC fresh from its gobbling up of PacBell - I smell Rockerfeller!

But don't fret about the latest spate of mega-mergers; they rely on cultural changes, too. Convergence, consmergence. This is a simple case of money makes more money. Microsoft cannot be stopped as a media company on top of being THE dominant technology player. Don't focus on Bill's moves individually. Remember, with the kind of cash he has, you can make a lot of mistakes. Let me give you a for-instance. Bill's best buddy Paul Allen, co-founder and Citizen Kane of the Pacific Northwest. People in Hollywood gasped when he invested a half-billion dollars into DreamWorks SKG. Remember these guys are playing with the house's money. That half a bill represented the gain on his Microsoft stock from the preceding eight months. Ouch!

Well, that's it for you this installation. Here's your homework. Go to the World Wide Web. Click on four banner ads, subscribe to three push services (Backweb, Marimba, or Individual Inc. are all good) and buy some thing. Go ahead, while the hackers aren't looking, put that credit card information into cyberspace. There, you've done it. You have just begun the journey down the long road toward cultural changes that consumers will need to go through before the Internet becomes a real medium instead of a new medium!

James Larking Jonassen is the executive director of teh Los Angeles New Media Roundtable (LAwNMoweR), co-founder of Origami Media and Entertainment, founder of Larkin Associates, and chairman of the Larkin Group. Jim is also the multimedia consultant for the state of California. You can reach Jim at (310) 260-0800 or jimj@larkin.com. Dont' miss the next LAwNMoweR event. See Tech du jour for details.