Population Projections of Immigrant Generations and Length of U.S. Residence

This has been an ongoing project pursued in the Population Dynamics Research Group since 2000. Much of this work has developed new methods that are tested with the California case. Recently, however, there had been greater interest in immigration nation-wide.

Major Studies

Projections of the U.S. Population, 2010-2140,
by Immigrant Generations and Length of U.S. Residence for the Foreign Born

by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers

October 2011

 > Executive Summary (pdf)  > Paper (pdf)
Data Tables:  > Table 1: Net Immigration, Estimated 1990-2010 and Projected to 2040 (xls)  > Table 2: U.S. Population by Generation, 1970-2010 and Projected to 2040 (xls)  > Table 3: U.S. Population Generational Distribution, 2010 and 2040 Projected (xls)  > Table 4: Immigrant Generation Share of U.S. Population, 1970-2010 and Projected to 2040 (xls)  > Table 5: Foreign Born Population by Duration Since Entry to U.S., 1970-2010, and Projected to 2040 (xls)  > Table 6: Population by Race, 1980, 2010, and 2040 Projected (xls)  > Table 7: Foreign-Born Population by Race, 1980, 2010, and 2040 Projected (xls)  > Table 8: Hispanic Population Generational Distribution, 1980, 2010 and 2040 Projected (xls)  > Table 9: Hispanic Foreign Born Population by Duration Since Entry to U.S., 1970-2010 and Projected to 2040 (xls)  > Table 10: Asian and P.I. Population Generational Distribution, 1980, 2010 and 2040 Projected (xls)  > Table 11: Asian, P.I. Foreign Born Population by Duration Since Entry to U.S., 1970-2010 and Projected to 2040 (xls)

Projections of the Population of California by Nativity and Year of Entry to the U.S.,
in Addition to Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin

by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers

Presented at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America

April 2011

 > Paper (pdf)

Survey of Expert Opinion on Future Level of Immigration (Delphi Report)

by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers

May 2011

 > Report (pdf)

The 2010 Census Benchmark for California's Growing and Changing Population

by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers

2010 Census Year California Profile

February 2011

 > Report (pdf)

A Predictive Estimate of the 2010 Census Count for California

by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers

2010 Census Year California Profile

December 2010

 > Report (pdf)

California Demographic Futures: Projections to 2030,
by Immigrant Generations, Nativity, and Time of Arrival in U.S.

by Dowell Myers, John Pitkin and Julie Park

Special Report, Population Dynamics Research Group

2005

 > Summary Report (pdf)