Multifamily Forecast:

2011 USC Casden Multifamily Forecast

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An article on the Rent Stabilization Ordinance has been removed from the Report because it did not meet the standards of the University of Southern California.

The annual Casden Multifamily Forecast Report assesses conditions for multifamily product types. The analysis generates forecasts of annual apartment rents and vacancy levels for Los Angeles County, Orange County, the Inland Empire, and San Diego County. The report also offers insights as to which submarkets within these areas are likely to outperform in the near future. The market data was supplied by M/PF YieldStar. The following summarizes key findings:

Los Angeles County

  • In 2010, same-store rent grew 1.2 percent, compared to 6 percent decrease in 2009 and 3.8 percent decrease in 2008. Average rents grew 0.9 percent to $1,501
  • 2010 occupancy rates were up 0.2 percentage points to 94.1 percent
  • 2,500 jobs were created in 2010 with 25,000-35,000 more expected in 2011
  • By the end of 2012, vacancy rates are expected to fall less than 0.5 percentage points, while rents are expected to decline 3.2 percent

Orange County

  • 2010 rents averaged $1,475, an increase of 0.8 percent over 2009
  • Demand outpaced supply in 2010, causing occupancy to increase 1.2 percentage points to 94.9 percent
  • 6,500 jobs were created in 2010 with 20,000-30,000 expected in 2011
  • Rents and vacancies are expected to remain relatively flat through 2012

Inland Empire

  • Average and same-store rents saw SoCal’s highest increases at 1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, in 2010
  • 2010 occupancy rates increased 1.5 percentage points to 93.9 percent, the lowest in SoCal
  • Devastated by the recession, the area lost 7,600 jobs in 2010. However 10,000-15,000 new jobs are expected in 2011
  • Rents are expected to be flat through 2011 and increase 0.5 percent in 2012, while vacancy rates will remain flat over the next two years

San Diego County

  • The only metro area to experience decreased rents in 2010 (-0.2 percent), same-store rents increased 0.9 percent
  • Occupancy grew 0.4 percentage points in 2010 to 95.4 percent
  • 5,200 jobs were added in 2010 with another 10,000-20,000 expected in 2011
  • Rents are expected to increase 0.4 percent in 2011 and 0.8 percent in 2012, while vacancies will remain flat through 2012