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Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Earthquake

ABSTRACT:
We summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due to earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the information provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques in ways that help capture the most important economic implications of earthquakes. Network costs and origin-destination requirements are modeled endogenously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across zones and economic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles. Work on incidence and distributional consequences continues, including evaluation of post-event reinvestments.

Due to the large number of formulas, charts, and maps, this document is provided in three parts in Adobe Portable Document Format. You will need the free Adobe PDF plug-in in order to open, view, and print these documents.

Authors:

    Sungbin Cho, Research Associate, School of Policy, Planning, & Development

    Peter Gordon, Professor of Policy, Planning, & Development -and- Economics

    James E. Moore II, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering -and- Policy, Planning, & Development; -and- Visiting Scholar, California Research Bureau, California State Library

    Harry W. Richardson, Professor of Policy, Planning, & Development -and- Economics

    Masanobu Shinozuka, Fred Champion Professor of Civil Engineering University of Southern California

    Stephanie E. Chang, Research Assistant Professor of Geography University of Washington -and- EQE, International

with the assistance of

    Seongkil Cho, Kyoung Lee, Shin Lee, Junghoon Ki, and Gang Yu School of Policy, Planning, & Development

    Shashank Agrawal, Anupam Bordia, Xue Dong, Yue Yue Fan, Uma Kompella, and Heng Liu Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Southern California

School of Policy, Planning, & Department of Civil & Development Environmental Engineering
Ralph and Goldy Lewis Hall, 330, MC-0626 Kaprielian Hall, 210, MC-2531
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California 90089-0626

Volume II of a Final Report to the National Science Foundation, Award CMS 9633386 (EHM)



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