Overview

           The decade of the 1990s was a period of exceptionally low construction in California.  Despite the fact that the population of the state increased by an estimated 4.71 million residents, only 1.11 million housing units were permitted for construction. Based on the ratio of permits to population growth that prevailed in the preceding decade of the 1980s, the construction shortfall of the 1990s amounted to 491,745 units, 30.8% less than expected. Nor is the standard of the 1980s excessively high, because if we substitute the patterns of the 1970s, this shortfall in expected construction would be more than three times larger. For more see LOW CONSTRUCTION-- The Great Housing Collapse.

            Population change in the 1990s was not substantially different than in previous decades. California has gained an average of about 5 million inhabitants in each of the last three decades, but the rate of increase has varied somewhat: 4.71 million in the 1990s, 6.09 million in the 1980s, and 3.70 million in the 1970s.   What is different about the 1990s is the much larger number of immigrants living in California and the rapidly changing racial-ethnic mix of the population. One explanation that has been suggested for the lower ratio of housing construction to population is that immigrants, and the population in general that is of Latino or Asian-origin, may occupy less housing per capita than did California’s earlier population that was predominantly non-Hispanic white and U.S.-born. For more see CHANGING POPULATION-- APA presentation (PDF file)

            The California Housing Futures project has yielded substantial innovations, some of which are portrayed in exhibits and presentations posted to this web site. In addition, two major journal articles have been published that substantially advance the knowledge frontier of housing needs analysis:

Dowell Myers, "Demographic Futures as a Guide to Planning: California Latinos and the Compact City," Journal of the American Planning Association 67 (Autumn 2001): 383-97. Recipient of 2001 Award for Best Article in the Journal. (PDF file)  

Dowell Myers, John Pitkin, and Julie Park, "Estimation of Housing Needs Amidst Population Growth and Change," Housing Policy Debate 13,3 (Fall 2002)  Links   

This project investigates this hypothesis about the changing housing needs of a changing population. Detailed Summary