The Grammys take a small step in the right direction

By Todd Martens
Staff Writer

Wednesday night's Grammy Awards may get scribed as the year Babyface tied a record set by Michael Jackson when he received 12 nominations, but the 39th annual award ceremony should really get remembered for taking some baby steps.
The persistent complaints that the Grammys failed to give credit to the most deserved artists were finally heeded by the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences last year. The Academy enacted a new method for making nominations and, after a year of adjustment, finally started to take some baby steps in the right direction.
The ol' faithfuls--Eric Clapton, Sting, Bonnie Raitt--received their annual nominations, but strides were made when artists like Beck, Smashing Pumpkins, Garbage, Fugees and Maxwell were recognized.
Here are some predictions for the major categories.
Record Of The Year: Tracy Chapman's "Give Me One Reason," Eric Clapton's "Change the World," Celine Dion's "Because You Loved Me,"Alanis Morissette's "Ironic," Smashing Pumpkins' "1979."
Will win: Eric Clapton's "Change the World" or Tracy Chapman's "Give Me One Reason." Although Clapton's song is somewhat drab and shouldn't really be heard outside of the the credits for "Phenomenon," it features a hopeful theme and a nice mix of rock and R&B. Plus, not only is Clapton hugely respected, but Babyface produced it, and that could add up to an unbeatable team. Chapman's "Give Me One Reason" is the better song, and she has been a favorite of the Academy. Her indecisive, bluesy tune is catchy enough and so well performed that it might take some voters away from the soundtrack single.
Should win: Smashing Pumpkin's "1979," the best written song of the bunch. Not only did Billy Corgan's wistful look back on youth win over practically every teen in America, but also marked the first time the lead singer actually sang. However, teens don't vote and the Academy won't forget Corgan's occasionally obnoxious whine.
Morissette's "Ironic" is nothing but a list of all things ironic, and Dion's tune is popular, but not popular enough to top Clapton or Chapman.
Album Of The Year: Beck's Odelay, Celine Dion's Falling Into You, Fugees' The Score, Smashing Pumpkins' Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness, the soundtrack for "Waiting to Exhale."
Will win: Fugees' The Score. The Fugees stand far apart from other rap artists by giving insightful tales of hope from the desperate streets of a New York ghetto. Gangsta rap's success dwindled and the Fugees rose to take its place by forgoing intense hostility and having a little fun with a cover of Roberta Flack's "Killing Me Softly." The album's popularity and accessibility, coupled with a new and very welcome sound to the rap scene, made many non-rap fans stand up and take notice.
Celine Dion's success is still riding high, but hopefully the Academy can see that Falling Into You is just ear-pleasing adult-contemporary.
The soundtrack for "Waiting to Exhale" shouldn't even be nominated. Sure, it's got Whitney and Toni, but this hodgepodge of divas lacks a coherent vision and its only ambition was to make a handful of hit singles.
Should win: Beck's Odelay. Beck became every critic's favorite son for making the most eclectic album of the year by mixing and sampling every genre of music and any noise-making gadget he could find, while still managing to give the songs a hook. Odelay is tons-o'-fun, but a little too wacky to nab Album Of The Year.
The Smashing Pumpkins created a brilliant, epic soundtrack for today's jaded youth, but Corgan's poetic tales of self-pity won't capture the Academy's hearts. It does deserve an award, and has a better chance in the Hard Rock and Alternative categories.
Song Of The Year: "Because You Loved Me," written by Diane Warren; "Blue," written by Bill Mack; "Change the World," written by Gordon Kennedy, Wayne Kirkpatrick and Tommy Sims; "Exhale (Shoop Shoop)," written by Babyface; "Give Me One Reason," written by Tracy Chapman.
Will win: We can immediately take away "Blue," but that still leaves this category pretty much up for grabs. "Change the World" is incredibly positive, but Babyface's "Exhale (Shoop Shoop)" is the perfect Whitney vehicle and the kind of song voters eat up. Still, both might get overshadowed by the success of "Because You Loved Me."
Should Win: "Because You Loved Me" is a pure top 40 ballad and that might shy voters away. "Give Me One Reason" is the best written here and should win, but expect voters to love that little Babyface or go with the popular ballad.
Best New Aritst: Garbage, Jewel, No Doubt, The Tony Rich Project, LeAnne Rimes.
Will win: Jewel. She is a Grammy voter's dream. A young woman with a sweet voice singing folksy-pop songs.
No Doubt's fan base is way too young, LeAnn Rimes is sometimes viewed as a novelty, and the Tony Rich Project pales in comparison to other artists of the genre.
Should win: Garbage. These hi-tech alterna-rockers borrow and steal from better bands before them, but mesh everything together like we're hearing it for the first time.
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance: Toni Braxton's "Un-Break My Heart," Shawn Colvin's "Get Out Of This House," Celine Dion's "Because You Loved Me," Gloria Estafan's "Reach," Jewel's "Who Will Save Your Soul."
Will win: Surrounded by mostly mediocre performances, Toni Braxton's overdramatic, but sincere, vocals will win.
Should win: Shawn Colvin's "Get Out Of This House." By bitterly and subtly sneering the lyrics, she puts so much emotion into the song that you want to stand up and defend her.
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance: Bryan Adams' "Let's Make A Night To Remember," Eric Clapton's "Change The World," John Mellencamp's "Key West Intermezzo," The Tony Rich Project's "Nobody Knows," Sting's "Let Your Soul Be Your Pilot."
Will win: Eric Clapton's "Change the World."
Should win: John Mellencamp's "Key West Intermezzo." Okay, so Mellencamp doesn't knock us over with his singing, but it's the only remotely interesting song nominated.
Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal: The Beatles' "Free As A Bird," Gin Blossom's "As Long As It Matters," Journey's "When You Love A Woman," The Neville Brothers' "Fire On The Mountain," The Presidents of the United States of America's "Peaches."
Will win: Journey? "Peaches?" Gin Blossoms? What were they thinking? Well, everyone loves nostalgia, so the award goes to the Beatles.
Should win: None.
Best Pop Album: Toni Braxton's Secrets, Tracy Chapman's New Beginning, Shawn Colvin's A Few Small Repairs, Celine Dion's Falling Into You, Sting's Mercury Falling.
Will win: Celine Dion's Falling Into You. It refuses to leave the top of the charts, and no matter what you do, it will rummage around in your head till you go insane.
Should win: Toni Braxton's Secrets and Tracy Chapman's New Beginning are both solid albums, but nothing spectacular. Sting's Mercury Falling wastes some smooth melodies on overly poetic lyrics that single out Sting's heartache as the single most important problem in the world. That leaves Shawn Colvin's A Few Small Repairs, with brief, heartfelt lyrics that jab the listener, as the pop album of choice.
Best Female Rock Vocal Performance: Tracy Bonham's "Mother, Mother," Tracy Chapman's "Give Me One Reason," Sheryl Crow's "If It Makes You Happy," Joan Osborne's "Spider Web," Bonnie Raitt's "Burning Down the House."
Will and should win: Sheryl Crow's "If It Makes You Happy." Her performance coyly builds up to a chorus that smacks the listener across the face. Besides, other than Bonham's "Mother Mother," which is just a shadow of Alanis, "If It Makes You Happy" is the only pure rock song in here.
Best Male Rock Vocal Performace: Bryan Adams' "The Only Think That Looks Good On Me Is You," Beck's "Where It's At," Eric Clapton's "Ain't Gone `N Give Up On Your Love," John Hiatt's "Cry Love," Bruce Springsteen's "Dead Man Walkin'."
Will and should win: Beck's "Where It's At." Maybe this is being overly optimistic, but Beck's energetic performance received more praise than a child who takes its first steps and the voters can't completely ignore that.
Best Rock Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal: Garbage's "Stupid Girl," Dave Matthews Band's "So Much To Say," Oasis' "Wonderwall," Smashing Pumpkins' "1979," the Wallflowers' "6th Avenue Heartache."
Will win: Dave Matthews Band's "So Much To Say." It actually doesn't say all that much, but the DMB received six nominations and the Hootie of alternative rock has a talent for crafting easy-to-swallow pop.
Should Win: Smashing Pumpkins' "1979."
Best Hard Rock Performance: Alice in Chains' "Again," Rage Against the Machine's "Bulls on Parade," Smashing Pumpkins' "Bullet With Butterfly Wings," Soundgarden's "Pretty Noose," Stone Temple Pilots' "Trippin' On a Hole in a Paper Heart."
Will and Should Win: Smashing Pumpkins' "Bullet With Butterfly Wings." Surrounded by the too-political Rage and second-rate singles from the others, the Pumpkins finally receive their award.
Best Rock Album: Sheryl Crow's Sheryl Crow, Dave Matthews Band's Crash, No Doubt's Tragic Kingdom, Bonnie Raitt's Road Tested, Neil Young with Crazy Horse's Broken Arrow.
Will and should win: Sheryl Crow. She solidified herself, she made us happy, and the big winner of 1995 shines when compared to the others.
Best Alternative Music Performance: Beck's Odelay, Tori Amos' Boys for Pele, Tracy Bonham's The Burdens of Being Upright R.E.M's New Adventures in Hi-Fi, the Smashing Pumpkins' Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness.
Will and should win: Beck's Odelay.
Best R&B Album: Oleta Adams' Moving On, Maxwell's Maxwell's Urban Hang Suite, Curtis Mayfield's New World Order, Me'Shell Ndegocello's Peace Beyond Passion, The Tony Rich Project's Words.
Will win: The Tony Rich Project's Words or Ndegocello's Peace Beyond Passion. Ndegocello's album is beautiful, but since Tony Rich won't win Best New Artist, this may be his consolation.
Should win: Maxwell's Maxwell's Urban Hang Suite. Everything the Tony Rich Project can do, but better.
Best Rap Solo Performance: Busta Rhymes' "Woo-Hah!! Got You All In Check," Coolio's "1,2,3,4 (Sumpin' New)," Heavy D's "Rock With You," LL Cool J's "Hey Lover," and Nas' "If I Ruled the World (Imagine That)."
Will and should win: Coolio's "1,2,3,4 (Sumpin' New)." He already has a foot in the door with his tearfully honest message in "Gangsta's Paradise," and this year's single gleefully bounces along. "Sumpin' New" is nothin' but fun.
Best Rap Performance By A Duo Or Group: Bone Thugs-N-Harmony "Tha Crossroads," Salt-N-Pepa's "Champagne," A Tribe Called Quest's "Trice Again," 2Pac's "California Love"(featuring Dr. Dre and Roger Troutman), 2Pac's "How Do U Want It" (featuring KC and JoJo).
Will and should win: 2Pac's "California Love." Creates a lively depiction of California as seen through scornful eyes, but more importantly, his mysterious and probably eternally unsolved murder has left a huge imprint on everyone's mind.
Best Rap Album: Coolio's Gangsta's Paradise, Fugees' The Score, LL Cool J's Mr. Smith, A Tribe Called Quest's Beat's Rhymes and Life, 2Pac's All Eyes On Me.
Will win: 2Pac's All Eyez On Me.
Should win: Fugee's The Score.
Best Country Album: Brooks and Dunn's Borderline, Vince Gill's High Lonesome Sound, Patty Loveless' The Trouble With The Truth, Lyle Lovett's The Road To Ensanada, Trisha Yearwood's Everybody Knows, Dwight Yoakom's Gone.
Will win: Brooks and Dunn's Borderline. It's more top 40 pop than country, but that's precisely why it will win.
Should win: Both Loveless' and Lovett's albums were more enticing, and it could be a coin toss.

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The 39th Annual Grammy Awards presentation airs at 8 p.m. Wednesday on CBS.