By the year 2050, experts predict the population of Hispanics in the United States will be 103 million people or 25 percent of the American population. Despite living below the poverty line and being less educated, this minority group, the country’s largest, exhibits a lifespan that equals and in some cases even surpasses that of whites.

Known as the “Hispanic Mortality Paradox,” explanations for this controversial phenomenon have varied widely among epidemiologists since the term was first coined in the 1990s by University of Texas Medical Branch sociologist Kyriakos “Kokos” Markides.

Markides, one of the most cited scientists in the world, visited the USC Davis School of Gerontology on Sept. 27 to discuss trends in aging and health among Hispanics in the U.S.

At the event hosted by the USC Roybal Institute for Applied Gerontology, director Jorge Lambrinos introduced Markides to an audience of aging professionals, faculty, students and staff.

“Health disparity in minority populations is a major concern in this country today,” Lambrinos said. “Koko’s findings help guide current and future research at USC by allowing us to better understand the societal implications of such a large population group.”

Markides is principal investigator of an ongoing longitudinal study examining the health of Mexican-American elders across five southwestern states for the past 16 years. He touched on a few conclusions from his research.

One investigation found increased levels of obesity, diabetes and higher levels of diastolic blood pressure between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s among elder Mexican-Americans.

Another study over a seven-year period showed that rising rates of depression exacerbated the debilitating effects of elder Mexican-Americans with diabetes, leading to increased disability and mortality.

An analysis of neighborhood composition and cancer rates found the incidence of breast, colorectal and lung carcinoma in heavily concentrated Hispanic areas was lower than white neighborhoods.

“We found living in a heavily Spanish-speaking neighborhood can protect against certain kinds of cancer,” he said.

Possible protective cultural factors and selective immigration of physically capable individuals are possible explanations for these conclusions.

Markides also addressed the Hispanic Paradox.

“The ‘paradox’ is overstated,” he said. “People who emigrate from one country to the next are generally very healthy.”

He and others believe physically fit immigrants show a distorted advantage among the Hispanic population as a whole in U.S. demographic studies, masking statistics that otherwise would indicate an unhealthy minority group.

Referring to recent research conducted by USC’s Eileen Crimmins, holder of the Edna M. Jones Chair of Gerontology, he added, “Their second generation is not doing as well.”

Crimmins’ study found U.S.-born Hispanics have higher levels of obesity, hypertension and cardiovascular disease in comparison to Hispanic immigrants.

In parting, Markides made some predictions about the health of future immigrant population groups.

“Older Hispanics as a group will have greater disability rates than older whites, rates that are only slightly lower than those for African-Americans,” he said. “On the other hand, older Asian and Pacific Islanders will have disability rates that are somewhat lower than those of whites.”

He also challenged the notion that Hispanic immigrants sap the American economy.

“There is something wonderful about immigrant populations – they contribute more than they take back,” he said. “They are healthier and they are not a drain on the health care system.”

Gerald C. Davison, dean and executive director of the USC Davis School, was pleased with the turnout and the appearance.

“Kokos provided a wonderful overview of his well-known epidemiological study of the health of various ethnic groups. The presentation was very thought-provoking for both theoretical and applied reasons.”