Quake Forecast Spots a Shaky Future
Photo/Philip Channing
The odds of avoiding a major quake in the next 30 years are about the same as flipping a coin and having it come up heads six times straight: almost nil, according to a new study.
The study, released April 14 in simultaneous news conferences at USC and in the San Francisco Bay area, finds a greater than 99 percent chance that a quake as big or bigger than the 1994 Northridge will hit somewhere in California by 2037.
But it could happen a lot sooner, according to the study. The chance of a big quake within five years is 50-50. The 10-year probability is about 75 percent.
The 30-year probability of an even more damaging, magnitude 7.5 quake – nearly 30 times stronger than Northridge – is almost 50 percent, USC University Professor Thomas Jordan said at the news conference.
Jordan directs the Southern California Earthquake Center, which prepared the study in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geologic Survey.
“Our study is significant because it presents for the first time a comprehensive earthquake forecast for the entire state,” Jordan said.
As such, the study will permit meaningful comparisons between regions and is expected to influence building codes, insurance rates, loss estimates and emergency and community preparedness efforts.
Southern California has a two-in-three chance of experiencing at least a Northridge-sized earthquake in the next 30 years. The likelihood of such a quake on the southern San Andreas fault is about 60 percent, according to the study.
The study’s authors, which included Jordan and representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey and California Geologic Survey, based their forecasts on past earthquake data, geological evidence, computer simulations, fault maps and opinions from other leading seismologists affiliated with the Southern California Earthquake Center, a 62-institution consortium based at USC.
The findings largely confirm those of earlier, regional forecasts released in 1995 and 2002.
The authors hope to mitigate the human and financial cost of the next big earthquake. The Northridge quake killed 57, injured thousands and caused billions in property damage. Even though several commercial buildings and highway overpasses collapsed, casualties were relatively low because the quake hit in the early morning hours of a federal holiday (Martin Luther King Day).
For more information on the new statewide earthquake forecast, visit http://www.scec.org/ucer.
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The Chronicle of Higher Education mentioned USC’s $6 billion fundraising campaign. The story noted that USC had already raised $1 billion in a “quiet phase,” including the $200 million naming gift from USC Trustee and alumnus David Dornsife and wife Dana Dornsife to the USC Dornsife College.
The Guardian (U.K.) highlighted two major gifts to USC in a list of the 10 biggest philanthropic benefactors in America. The list included the $200 million naming gift from USC Trustee and alumnus David Dornsife and wife Dana Dornsife to the USC Dornsife College, and the $110 million gift from USC Trustee and USC Viterbi School alumnus John Mork and wife Julie to create the USC Mork Family Scholars Program.
The New York Times featured the USC U.S.-China Institute documentary “Assignment: China — The Week that Changed the World.” The documentary, part of a series, examines media coverage of the 1972 Nixon trip that reshaped U.S.-China relations after a quarter century of isolation and hostility. “People look back now and take it for granted that the outcome was preordained,” said the institute’s Mike Chinoy, who produced the documentary. Voice of America also featured the story.
Los Angeles Times featured the Oscar Senti-meter, a tool developed by the USC Annenberg School, Los Angeles Times and IBM that analyzes thousands of tweets about the Academy Awards nominees. The story noted that Mexican actor Demian Bechir received an enormous boost on Twitter the day of the nominations, with a total of 6,893 tweets mentioning him, a 47-fold increase from the day before. The story noted the tool uses language-recognition technology developed in collaboration with USC Viterbi School’s Signal Analysis and Interpretation Lab.
The Times of India (India) featured a three-day medical emergency training workshop organized in association with USC. At the workshop, held at GCS Medical College in India, 50 doctors and more than 100 paramedics learned how to improve emergency support systems. William Mallon of the Keck School of USC said that discussion topics included the use of portable ultrasonic devices to scan patients. “The ultrasound applications help physicians make accurate and timely decisions,” he noted. Daily News & Analysis (India) also featured the workshop.
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